Carlos Dorado: “War is the most effective machine for the pro…
Carlos Dorado – President Italbank International
“I think we have done and are doing something wrong, despite the impressive technological development”
It is possible that the United States will impose sanctions on Russian technology companies, limiting their access to semiconductors, software and technology in general. —Carlos Dorado
MIAMI, FLORIDA, USA, March 2, 2022 /EINPresswire.com/ — “When we talk about war, the economic, social and human consequences are incalculable. If we add to this that the Russian economy is the eleventh in the world and a major producer of raw materials; the economic consequences will affect Russia more, but also the other economies of the world, a consequence of globalisation”, warned Carlos Dorado, president of Italbank and vice-president of Italcambio, to the Observador Latino.
The world will feel the Russian push on Ukraine, due to the financial grip of the markets since the disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991, through the logistics and transportation system.
Russia continues to be Europe’s biggest gas supplier and one of the biggest producers of oil and raw materials such as nickel, aluminum and palladium, wheat, potassium and fertilizers , so prices will go up, as happened with crude oil and gas which rose 30%.
Stock exchanges in the Old Continent fell after the Kremlin attack on Ukraine, but Wall Street closed higher due to American sanctions, the price of Brent crude oil broke through the $100 barrier; safe assets such as gold and the dollar, have been revalued, but there are also warnings about problems in the supply channels with the products passing through the Black Sea and the persistent inflation, which does not make nothing to help the economic recovery experienced in nations before the pandemic.
Sanctions in various areas
The price of the raw materials that Russia produces and exports can register a significant increase, however, according to Carlos Dorado, it must be seen from two scenarios: the first, if the export channels such as those of the Black Sea or pipelines are destroyed; and second, sanctions against Russia, which was limited in its ability to do business in dollars, euros, yen, pounds, through the international banking financial system.
“At present, it seems that the first sanctions are more in the direction of a restriction of the flow of raw materials exported by Russia, than of a total cut off of their flow, since it is a question of an area of mutual dependence,” said Carlos Dorado, an economist. and entrepreneur.
In the financial and technological field, Russia has more control and power. The action against Ukraine was even accompanied by a cyberattack.
“It is possible that the United States will impose sanctions on Russian technology companies, limiting their access to semiconductors, software and technology in general,” Carlos Dorado said.
On the financial side, the two largest banks in Russia were blacklisted: Sberbank and VTB, which were prevented from making transfers through the SWIFT system.
“This is serious for Russia, preventing it from making or receiving international payments, which significantly restricts its imports and exports, and access to external financing, public and private; being virtually isolated from the international financial world,” said Carlos Dorado.
If this general situation occurs, Vladimir Putin’s administration should turn to its Chinese ally as an alternative to cover its financial needs, he stressed, “somewhat on the basis of the good relations they have and the increase in the payment of their commercial exchanges, of which currently only 33% of the total is made in dollars, against 97% in 2014.
–How the West should prepare for the economic chaos that awaits
-The West from the financial and banking point of view has a low risk compared to Russia. However, with globalization, this minor risk may be increased by the private share of Russia’s exports and imports as a result of the sanctions. It will no longer just be a problem of importing or exporting to Russia, it will be a problem of payment or collection of these imports.
We have to wait for the result, says Carlos Dorado
Carlos Dorado considers that to know the real impact of the Russian war on world economies, we will have to wait for how it ends or how far it will go, although he must bear the internal consequences, “even if I don’t don’t think will be serious or terminal.’
As in all wars, he warned, there will be inflation that will disrupt the global economic recovery, due to measures to contain the pandemic and injections of money by states.
“It remains to be seen how other factors will evolve, such as: how far China wants to go to help Russia in this war, and what will be the overall strategy and that of each country, vis-à-vis Russia and penalties. But, the most important will be: what is the strategy and how far does Putin want to go?
-The Ukrainian private bank has warned of a possible flight of millions of dollars of capital, why is this happening Carlos Dorado?
-War, on the one hand, is the most efficient machine ever invented to produce fear and human misery, and on the other, there is nothing more cowardly than a million dollars. Therefore, the natural consequence of a war is that people are desperate to protect their capital, and one of the first actions they take is to send their money to places where it is safer. Ukraine will have to take “war measures”, and the allied countries will have to provide “war aid”. Unfortunately, these are not times of peace.
Ukraine has declared that Russia’s aggression against strategic points is part of a “hybrid war”.
Carlos Dorado reflected on the subject and indicated that technology changes everything, our way of life, our way of thinking, our way of acting and also wars, but also the way they communicate and visualize the facts, which in in the past they were very limited.
“In this context, he seeks to make the Russian population understand that his enemy is his government, to destabilize it internally and to put pressure on whoever orders the war,” he said. “But in this communication war, fake news also happens, and it represents a large percentage of the news broadcast. It means that we have a lot more information, but more manipulated and much less credible”.
While the infodemic can be a benefit, it ends up being the opposite. “All this, without forgetting that technology can help us, and greatly improve our lives, but it can also destroy the planet in minutes.”
The economist is worried, beyond the consequences that this recently unleashed war may have, ‘it is the fact that we have had a great technological development, but very poor in social and human development, where we are in 2022 at talking about wars, instead of social welfare, the elimination of inequalities, climate change, etc. I think we have done and are doing something wrong, despite the impressive technological development,” Carlos Dorado said.
write to us here