• Health care providers in the United States are pushing to vaccinate more than 70% of eligible Americans to move closer to herd immunity against the novel coronavirus.
• Some disease experts believe that achieving true herd immunity, a condition in which transmission of COVID-19 between individuals is not likely, will not happen anytime soon.
• Obtaining herd immunity may be increasingly difficult due to new variants of COVID-19 and declining vaccination rates, as well as uncertainty over the duration of immunity.

With over 37% of the total US population fully vaccinated against COVID-19, Americans may be wondering if their communities are close collective immunity. The term has been tossed around by health experts and local leaders for more than a year, used in estimates to end lockdown restrictions and strict social distancing last summer. This is an elusive goal for nearly every nation in the world, and here in the United States, a growing body of evidence suggests that most states will not be able to position themselves as mostly immune anytime soon. Importantly, declining vaccination rates and an increase in cases linked to the development of COVID-19 variants pose a threat to herd immunity globally, not just nationally.

It’s not all bad news – President Biden recently announced his federal administration has a new goal that at least 70% of eligible American adults (and children!) receive at least one dose of the vaccine by July 4. An additional goal linked to the announcement was to fully inoculate 160 million adults by Independence Day, as NPR Reports, in the interest of further rolling back public health restrictions across the country to boost local economies and hopefully bring back a greater sense of normalcy in time for summer.

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This plan, and herd immunity itself, all depend on whether or not Americans continue to turn to vaccination clinics, explains Nelson Michael, MD., the director of Walter Reed Army Research InstituteInfectious Disease Research Center. “It’s a race right now to get people vaccinated, to stay one step ahead and also to stay one step ahead of these emerging gaps,” he adds.

Read on to learn more about herd immunity and why some experts believe progress is ahead, even though true herd immunity is never achieved.

What is collective immunity to COVID-19?

Basically, herd immunity to COVID-19 will occur when a majority of the American population – called the “herd” in this case, explains Dr. Michael – becomes immune. It is a theoretical step towards making basic coronavirus disease endemic rather than a pandemic raging across borders; if herd immunity is reached, it means that the spread of the disease will slow down between individuals, even if someone has not yet received or gained immunity.

Dr Michael compares herd immunity to the protections offered by helmets and seat belts: “What we’re doing now is that more people are wearing helmets or seat belts – or, in this case, get vaccinated – the more protected you are if someone hits you. ”

Once a person is infected with SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that leads to COVID-19 infection), they acquire some immunity to the disease. But gaining immunity in this manner puts enormous strain on our health resources, as we’ve seen throughout most of 2020 and even now, in states where infection rates are high. Health experts urge Americans to gain immunity through vaccination, which may provide more promising immunity than natural infection, as doctors have now established that you can indeed get COVID-19 both time.

For almost all Americans, this is the first pandemic they have ever experienced – but communities have historically achieved herd immunity through vaccination before. Epidemics of smallpox, polio, rubella and other life-threatening diseases have been suppressed by vaccines in the past, says Dr Michael. And although the vaccine developed to fight COVID-19 is brand new, he adds that there is enough data to know that this vaccine can (at a minimum) avoid too much pressure on our healthcare system: “It is very clear that current vaccines keep you from becoming hospitalized or dying… In the real world, not just in clinical trial data, you see [vaccines] prevent COVID diseases from becoming life-ending events. “

When is collective immunity completely reached?

In other words, how many people in the United States need some sort of disease immunity to be considered a real herd? This is a complex question and requires health experts to constantly extract data on current infections.

Analysts at the Mayo Clinic Explain that the US threshold proportion – the percentage of the general public who are likely to become ill and spread COVID-19 – must be less than the percentage of people who are immune to the disease. Only then will the nation achieve true collective immunity status.

How many people is it really, But? “I can tell you that I don’t think anyone really knows exactly what that number is. We know it has to be high, ”says Dr Michael.

The fact that COVID-19 is highly contagious is likely driving President Biden’s goal of vaccinating 70% of eligible Americans by early July. Since the disease has spread easily and can continue to spread, it will be difficult to reduce the threshold proportion of the population below the immune parts. Experts from the Mayo Clinic add that as a rule, it is estimated that “94% of the population must be immunized to interrupt the chain of transmission”.

All of this is made more complex and complicated by the new variants of COVID-19 that pose a threat to those vaccinated. Much like the immunity acquired after becoming ill, the immune response that accompanies a COVID-19 vaccine probably does not last forever and does not offer as much protection against newer variants as the traditional strains of the disease that are spreading in 2020. . vaccine manufacturers are is currently working on additional injections at present.

What percentage of Americans have been fully immunized at this point?

Currently, more than 275 million doses of vaccines created in part by teams at Pfizer, Moderna and Johnson & Johnson have been administered to approximately 124 million people. The data show that this amount represents just over 37% of the American population.

The vaccination rate is slowing, however, compared to the start of 2021. Data analysts at New York Times have published a live graph demonstrating that supply currently exceeds demand. The average number of people receiving their first dose (or a single dose injection) on any given day has halved since April 13. Time reports. They add that CDC data shows the drop in vaccinations is greatest among adults aged 18 to 64, and that at the start of May, more than 50% of that population remains unvaccinated despite the expansion. of eligibility.

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Whether it’s because of hesitation about potential side effects or the lack of resources to reach clinics or pharmacies, declining demand for a vaccine could make herd immunity much more difficult. It is also in addition to the fact that vaccination rates around the world are nowhere near vaccination rates in the United States, but borders and travel generally remain open.

“We want to make sure we protect ourselves not only in the United States, but as a global community – if people abroad are not protected, the virus will continue to take its turn,” says Dr Michael, who quotes current outbreaks in India like a “fire” that could easily spread elsewhere. “There are examples of how vaccines can help us, the best being smallpox, which is a disease that we have not only eradicated at home, but around the world. We are also on the verge of doing so. even for polio. “

How much longer until we achieve collective immunity here in the United States?

For most experts, it’s too early to answer this question – and some may think that full herd immunity is simply unattainable. Ultimately, current vaccinations offer protection against serious side effects or fatal consequences, allowing Americans to live alongside the spread of COVID-19 for now.

Monitor progress against President Biden The July target may be the best timeframe expect benefits as close to collective immunity as ever, says Dr. Michael. “Epidemiology experts had data on other respiratory infections that suggest when you reach this level of immunity from vaccination, 70% in this case, that the infection curves start to collapse,” he explains. he, adding that new infections in the United States are low. points now compared to 2021 and the whole of 2020.

“The country is increasingly vaccinated and I think if we get into the fall season, and the numbers continue to drop – with no upward trends due to variants or re-emergence of cold or relaxation – I don’t mean we’re gonna be back to normal, but we’ll get closer to that than ever before, ”he adds.

While vaccines offer you many protections, it’s important to always adopt best practices to stay safe and reduce the risk of COVID-19, as Dr. Michael shares that 2% of those infected end up with prolonged complications arising from it. of disease. “It doesn’t have a death rate similar to that of a disease like Ebola… but there is a segment of our society, especially people of color, black, Latin American, indigenous. and native Alaskan individuals, who have a higher risk of becoming infected and having long symptoms of COVID if infected. The data is very clear on this and should encourage people to avoid the risks. “

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